Global olive oil production for the 2026/27 season is forecast to reach 3.50 to 3.65 million tonnes, outpacing expected world consumption of about 3.25 million tonnes, as Spain’s harvest rebounds sharply while Tunisia, Türkiye and Morocco see smaller crops.
Spain’s Rebound Drives the Global Surplus
Figures shared in a newsletter from the World Olive Oil Exhibition, attributed to national agriculture ministries and official agricultural authorities, put Spain’s 2026/27 production at roughly 1.6 million tonnes, up about 23% and close to 46% of total world output. Italy is expected to produce around 325,000 tonnes and Greece about 300,000 tonnes, while Portugal’s harvest is approaching 180,000 tonnes. Syria’s output is projected to nearly triple, from about 66,000 tonnes to 191,000 tonnes, continuing its recovery as a producer.
What the Surplus Means for Olive Oil Prices and Buyers
Tunisia, Türkiye and Morocco are all expected to harvest less this season, so the global picture is uneven even as total supply grows: a surplus concentrated in Spain’s bulk-grade oil can still leave buyers competing for well-documented, quality-verified lots from origins producing less. For buyers sourcing Tunisian olive oil, a season when Spanish bulk supply expands while Tunisia’s own harvest tightens is a reason to confirm grading, traceability, and available volumes with Tunisian Olive Oil Trade’s sourcing team early, rather than assume every origin’s oil is equally available or similarly priced.
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FAQ
How much olive oil will the world produce in 2026/27? Global olive oil production for the 2026/27 season is forecast at 3.50 to 3.65 million tonnes, exceeding expected world consumption of about 3.25 million tonnes, according to figures shared by the World Olive Oil Exhibition.
Why is Spain’s olive oil production rising so much? Spain’s 2026/27 olive oil output is projected to rise about 23% to roughly 1.6 million tonnes, close to 46% of global production, driven by a strong recovery in its main olive-growing regions after recent lower-yield seasons.
Source: Vinetur
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