With the 2025/26 season wrapped up, market attention has shifted to the 2026/27 crop — and the early signs across the Mediterranean are, cautiously, positive.
A strong start
A wet spring supported healthy vegetative growth and flowering across major producing regions, with low pest pressure reinforcing the favorable early picture. Reservoir levels in key growing areas were reported at 80-90% or higher, a meaningful cushion heading into the dry summer months.
The variable that decides everything
Analysts point to fruit set — the period from May into June when flowers develop into young fruit — as the key factor that will determine next season’s actual yield. A strong fruit set would ease upward price pressure later in the year; a heat event during this window would tighten yield expectations quickly and reintroduce weather risk into origin prices. Recent heatwaves across the Mediterranean have kept market participants watchful rather than confident.
FAQ
When will a real production estimate be possible? Not until autumn, once fruit set outcomes and summer weather are known — early flowering conditions are encouraging but don’t lock in a final volume.
Does a good 2026/27 outlook mean prices will fall soon? Only gradually, and only if fruit set holds up. Current-season stock levels and demand still set near-term prices; next season’s outlook mainly shapes forward expectations.
Source: Wikifarmer