Spain’s Rocky 2025/26 Harvest: Drought, Then Rain, Cut Into Yields

Spain’s 2025/26 olive oil campaign is coming in at around 1.08 million tonnes — down 5.5% from the previous season, though still roughly 20% above the five-year average, according to market reporting compiled by industry trackers.

A season of two extremes

A rainy spring supported healthy tree growth, but the hot summer that followed slowed fruit development. Then, late in the harvest, heavy rainfall arrived and disrupted collection — cutting the number of effective harvesting days and reducing the volume of olives gathered, particularly in Jaén, Andalusia’s largest olive-growing province and the source of roughly three-quarters of Spain’s total output.

Why it matters beyond Spain

As the world’s largest producer, Spain’s yield swings ripple through global pricing. The drought-then-deluge pattern behind this season’s shortfall is also why analysts are watching the 2026/27 bloom closely — a repeat would tighten supply again just as the market had started to stabilize.

FAQ

Does this mean olive oil prices will rise again? A lower Spanish yield adds upward pressure, but it’s one factor among several — global production is still forecast near 3.4 million tonnes for the season, above recent lows.

Why does Jaén matter so much? It alone accounts for roughly three-quarters of Andalusia’s crop, and Andalusia produces about three-quarters of Spain’s total olive oil — so weather there has an outsized effect on the whole country’s numbers.

Source: CNBC, Wikifarmer