Tunisia’s Olive Oil Harvest Set to Drop 40% Next Season

Tunisia’s olive oil production is expected to fall by roughly 40 percent in the 2026-2027 season, dropping to an estimated 300,000 tons from last season’s record 500,000 tons, according to the head of the country’s National Chamber of Olive Producers.

A Return to Tunisia’s Natural Yield Cycle

Najeh Saïdi Hamed, president of Tunisia’s National Chamber of Olive Producers, told Mosaique FM on September 4, 2026 that the Chamber now forecasts 300,000 tons of olive oil for the 2026-2027 season. She explained that Tunisian olive production follows a biennial cycle, in which a high-yield year is typically followed by a lower-yield one — and the 2025-2026 season was an exceptional one, with output reaching a record 500,000 tons that made Tunisia the world’s second-largest olive oil producer behind Spain. That record harvest also drove a surge in exports: Tunisia shipped 368,000 tons of olive oil in the first nine months of the 2025-2026 season, up 55.3 percent year-on-year, earning $1.6 billion, with extra virgin olive oil accounting for 83.6 percent of the volume sold to more than 70 countries.

Lower Volume, But Revenue Could Hold Steady

Despite the sharp drop in expected volume, Saïdi Hamed said the 2026-2027 season could still generate revenue comparable to the previous year, thanks to higher prices on the international olive oil market. For buyers, that combination of tighter Tunisian supply and firm global prices is worth watching closely: importers who rely on Tunisian olive oil for the year ahead should expect higher per-liter costs than during the 2025-2026 record harvest, and locking in supply agreements with exporters early in the season is likely to matter more than usual as available volumes shrink.

FAQ

How much will Tunisia’s olive oil production drop in 2026-2027? Tunisia’s National Chamber of Olive Producers forecasts a roughly 40 percent decline, from a record 500,000 tons in 2025-2026 to an estimated 300,000 tons in 2026-2027, reflecting the crop’s natural biennial cycle.

Will Tunisian olive oil cost more this season? Likely yes — officials expect the smaller 2026-2027 harvest to generate revenue similar to last season’s because international olive oil prices are higher, meaning buyers should budget for increased per-unit costs even as export volumes fall.

Source: African Manager