Tunisia Olive Oil Harvest Set to Shrink as Global Prices Are Forecast to Rise in 2026-2027

Tunisia’s National Chamber of Olive Producers says global olive oil prices are set to rise again in the 2026-2027 season, even as the country’s own harvest is forecast to fall sharply. Speaking on Diwan FM on Friday, September 4, 2026, Chamber president Najah Saïdi Hamed said international buyers are rebuilding stocks to cover contract commitments for the new season, a trend she expects to support prices worldwide even as supply tightens.

A Smaller Tunisian Harvest, But a Stronger Market Position

Saïdi Hamed forecast Tunisia’s 2026-2027 olive harvest at between 250,000 and 300,000 tonnes, down sharply from the roughly 500,000 tonnes gathered in the exceptional 2025-2026 season. She attributed the drop mainly to Tunisia’s rain-fed groves, which make up about 60 percent of the country’s olive orchards and whose yield swings with rainfall from one year to the next. Despite the smaller crop, she said Tunisian orchards held up better against this summer’s Mediterranean heatwaves than plantations in Spain, Italy and Greece, all of which saw significant production damage from the extreme heat. For buyers sourcing olive oil from Tunisia, that resilience is worth watching: a market where European supply is under more strain than Tunisia’s own gives Tunisian exporters an opening, provided they diversify export markets and adapt their commercial strategy.

Packaging and Storage Are the Next Hurdles

Saïdi Hamed urged producers to accelerate the shift from bulk olive oil exports to packaged and branded products, arguing this would let Tunisia capture more of the value generated on international markets rather than ceding it to bottlers abroad. She also flagged storage capacity as a pressing constraint: current national storage and absorption capacity, she said, is not always sufficient to handle volumes at the start of the harvest, which can force producers to sell 40 to 50 percent of the national crop early in the season on unfavorable terms. Strengthening storage infrastructure, she said, will be key to letting Tunisia’s olive oil sector fully benefit from an expected rise in international prices.

FAQ

Will Tunisian olive oil prices rise in 2026-2027? Global olive oil prices are expected to rise in the 2026-2027 season as international buyers rebuild stocks amid tighter supply, which the president of Tunisia’s National Chamber of Olive Producers says could help Tunisia match or exceed last season’s export revenue.

How much olive oil will Tunisia produce in 2026-2027? Tunisia’s National Chamber of Olive Producers forecasts a 2026-2027 harvest of 250,000 to 300,000 tonnes, down from around 500,000 tonnes in the 2025-2026 season, mainly because about 60 percent of Tunisian groves are rain-fed.

Source: La Presse de Tunisie, RTCI