Spain’s Record Olive Oil Harvest Could Trigger a First-Ever Market Withdrawal

Spain’s Ministry of Agriculture is forecasting a record 1.6 million tonnes of olive oil for the 2026/27 season, a 23% jump that has pushed the government to consider pulling oil off the market for the first time ever to keep prices from collapsing.

A Record Harvest Concentrated in Andalusia

Andalusia alone is expected to produce 1,261,200 tonnes, 79% of Spain’s national total and a 29% increase on the previous campaign, according to the Ministry of Agriculture’s first “aforo” (harvest estimate) presented by Agriculture Minister Luis Planas. Jaén province, Spain’s single largest olive-growing region, accounts for 575,000 tonnes on its own, more than a third of the whole country’s output. Castilla-La Mancha (152,000 tonnes, up 10%) and Extremadura (97,300 tonnes, up 24%) are also set to grow, while production is expected to fall in Catalonia, Aragón, the Balearic Islands, Madrid, Murcia and Navarra. Once carryover stock from the previous season is added in, Spain’s total available olive oil could approach 2 million tonnes.

Spain May Invoke a Never-Used EU Rule to Protect Prices

Planas said the government will decide in early November whether to activate Article 167 bis of the EU’s Common Market Organization regulation, a mechanism that allows member states to temporarily withdraw olive oil from the market when oversupply threatens to push prices below sustainable levels for producers. The tool exists on paper but has never actually been used. The decision will follow a two-step process: refined regional production estimates through October, then final figures on carryover stock in mid-October, before the General Directorate of Productions and Markets issues its ruling in early November. Planas also pushed back on the idea that imports are to blame for falling prices, pointing out that Tunisian olive oil accounts for just 5.82% of the volume moving through Spain’s olive oil market.

Tunisia’s own position looks different this season. The country’s national chamber of olive producers expects a smaller 2026/27 harvest of 250,000 to 300,000 tonnes, down from an exceptional 500,000 tonnes a year earlier, largely because around 60% of Tunisian groves depend on rainfall rather than irrigation (La Presse). For international buyers, that combination — a leaner, quality-focused Tunisian crop alongside a record-breaking Spanish one — is exactly the moment to lock in verified Tunisian suppliers rather than compete for space in an oversupplied bulk market.

FAQ

How much olive oil will Spain produce in 2026/27? Spain’s Ministry of Agriculture forecasts 1.6 million tonnes of olive oil for the 2026/27 campaign, a 23% increase over the previous season, with Andalusia alone expected to supply about 1.26 million tonnes.

Why is Spain considering withdrawing olive oil from the market? With total available olive oil approaching 2 million tonnes once carryover stock is counted, Spain’s government is weighing whether to invoke Article 167 bis of the EU’s Common Market Organization rules for the first time ever, a mechanism that would temporarily pull oil off the market to stop oversupply from driving prices too low for producers.

Source: Infobae España